Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 8.885602e-05 0.000105 0.000123 0.000143 0.000165 0.000189 0.000216
2025-01-26 6.254216e-05 0.000083 0.000107 0.000136 0.000170 0.000208 0.000253
2025-02-02 5.271093e-05 0.000076 0.000103 0.000138 0.000180 0.000229 0.000288
2025-02-09 4.285927e-05 0.000067 0.000097 0.000137 0.000187 0.000246 0.000320
2025-02-16 3.802282e-05 0.000063 0.000097 0.000142 0.000199 0.000268 0.000356
2025-02-23 3.266049e-05 0.000059 0.000094 0.000143 0.000207 0.000286 0.000388
2025-03-02 2.608843e-05 0.000051 0.000086 0.000137 0.000206 0.000291 0.000403
2025-03-09 2.092006e-05 0.000045 0.000080 0.000133 0.000205 0.000297 0.000420
2025-03-16 1.760406e-05 0.000041 0.000077 0.000132 0.000209 0.000308 0.000442
2025-03-23 1.512262e-05 0.000038 0.000075 0.000132 0.000214 0.000322 0.000468
2025-03-30 1.263821e-05 0.000034 0.000071 0.000131 0.000217 0.000332 0.000489
2025-04-06 1.009621e-05 0.000031 0.000067 0.000127 0.000216 0.000337 0.000504
2025-04-13 8.215169e-06 0.000028 0.000065 0.000128 0.000223 0.000353 0.000536
2025-04-20 5.744215e-06 0.000023 0.000058 0.000121 0.000219 0.000356 0.000550
2025-04-27 4.715487e-06 0.000022 0.000057 0.000123 0.000227 0.000374 0.000585
2025-05-04 3.620768e-06 0.000019 0.000055 0.000123 0.000232 0.000387 0.000613
2025-05-11 3.106312e-06 0.000019 0.000055 0.000127 0.000243 0.000410 0.000655
2025-05-18 2.482838e-06 0.000017 0.000054 0.000128 0.000250 0.000428 0.000689
2025-05-25 1.592283e-06 0.000014 0.000050 0.000122 0.000247 0.000430 0.000701
2025-06-01 9.986794e-07 0.000012 0.000046 0.000118 0.000244 0.000433 0.000717
2025-06-08 6.740344e-07 0.000011 0.000044 0.000117 0.000247 0.000444 0.000742
2025-06-15 4.687049e-07 0.000010 0.000043 0.000118 0.000253 0.000459 0.000773
2025-06-22 2.841786e-07 0.000009 0.000041 0.000116 0.000255 0.000469 0.000797